Grain Market Insights with Dan O'Brien

Link to original Ag Today Podcast
July 5, 2024 —K-State grain economist Dan O'Brien kicked off the Ag Today podcast with Shelby Varner today by discussing the recent trends in grain prices. He noted that grain prices have been moving sideways lately, largely due to varying weather conditions across the Corn Belt. Corn futures recently closed at $4.19, and soybeans found some support, closing at $11.21. Dan highlighted the shift to new crop contracts, especially for corn and soybeans, as everyone gears up for the upcoming harvests.

When it comes to wheat, the market has been relatively stable, with prices hovering around $5.75. Dan mentioned that there have been mixed reports on wheat yields, largely influenced by the moisture levels we saw last fall. He also pointed out that international factors, like crop projections from Brazil and Argentina, are playing a significant role in shaping the wheat market.

Weather Impact on Markets
Dan went on to discuss how weather is significantly impacting market trends. While some areas have experienced heavy rains and even flooding, most of the Corn Belt remains quite dry. The weather forecast for the next few months will be crucial in determining market movements. If dry conditions persist, we could potentially see higher prices.

Updated Balance Sheets
Dan also shared some updated balance sheet numbers for corn. He’s projecting a potential increase in production due to higher acreage, but he stressed the importance of actual yields, which could lead to different outcomes in ending stocks and prices. For soybeans, Dan predicted various price scenarios based on potential yield outcomes, highlighting the current uncertainty in market forecasts.

Cotton Market Outlook
Lastly, Dan touched on the cotton market. He noted that while cotton acreage in Kansas has remained stable, there have been significant increases in other states. He explained that cotton remains a viable crop in areas with declining irrigation water, suggesting a positive long-term outlook for cotton production in Kansas.

To hear more from Dan and other experts, check out the full podcast episode of Agriculture Today.